FSU - UF Football Rivalry Stats

Rivalry week is behind us and the trash talk is still going strong. RIP in peace my news feed - and my team won.

There's a bit of chatter about the all-time series record that they are indeed winning, but I wanted to look a bit further into it.

.@FSUAlumni Considering we lead the series 34-24-2? Fine by us! pic.twitter.com/JMO6iHg5VE

— UF Alumni (@ufalumni) November 30, 2015

It turns out that, they aren't just leading the stats, they are pretty damn far ahead. However, the bulk of this comes from the early days of football at Florida State - but is it ridiculous to quote statistics from the 1950s and 60's? I'd definitely say, "Yes and no."

I don't mean to be any more of a revisionist by asking this question than say a team whose only score was produced by the defense. Let's just look at some numbers.


I've shown my work in case you want to review. Holler if I missed anything - I haven't double checked it.

If we try to identify a "Current Era" to measure the teams against each other, I found that the two teams are unbelievably close competitors.

Win/Loss Records

Looking at the all-time standings, UF took an early lead, and jumped ahead in two streaks in 1968-75, and again in 1981-86. Across all time, UF is in a commanding lead, sitting 10 wins ahead of FSU with a record of 34 wins, 24 losses, 2 ties, and one Choke at Doak.

Since I was born in '83, most this sounds pretty thin - especially coming from kids who weren't even alive when the Simpsons was a well established cult classic.

Let's try to start in somewhat more recent times, like from the beginning of the Bobby Bowden era, in 1976.

Despite 4 decent runs on both sides, FSU leads the series by 3 wins since 1976.

To be somewhat fair, let's pick another circumstance to change balance this investigation. I'll try again at the beginning of the Spurrier era, starting in 1990 - at least it's closer to the birth date of most college kids now.

No change. FSU still leads the series by 3 games.

Yeah, I agree it's bullshit to discount 15 losses and a tie, but we're just examining numbers here. Also, I don't see how the argument that, "games played in the 1950s and '60s are more relevant," holds any more weight than, "current history is more relevant to reality."

Let's take at another metric to see what's going on across multiple games.

Running Score Distribution

Example: Starting at 0, if UF wins with a score of 14-7, UF is awarded 7 points, and FSU begins with -7 points.

Across all time, FSU is just dominated by UF who ran up a score of 200 additional points over FSU - mainly between the first game in 1958 and the year before Bobby Bowden arrived. Good job, our collective grandparents who probably weren't associated with either school!

Let's see what has happened in more recent history.

Looking at the Bowden era to present, the overall score between the two teams puts UF in the lead by 3 points. THREE!

How about the Spurrier era to present?

It's a goddamn tie! Since 1990, FSU and UF have scored the same amount of offsetting points.

Someone please check my work. That's weird.

Conclusion

Okay, I admit rivalry isn't rivalry without context of history. I'm confident that the next few seasons are looking fierce for my Alma mater, and I don't doubt the ability to overcome those very early defects in the coming years. However, it's fair to say both teams have had some incredibly strong runs in recent history, and these quick illustrations have a surprising degree of balance.